Research

Questions, methods
and findings.

I study how policies and changing circumstances affect people. These projects combine economic reasoning with detailed empirical analysis, with full research summaries and paper links below.

01 / Job market paper

The Impact of Fertility Restriction Relaxation on Mental Health: Evidence from China’s Universal Two-Child Policy

Xiao Zhang · Applied microeconomics · Policy evaluation

What happens to mental health when restrictions on reproductive choices are relaxed? This paper uses China’s Universal Two-Child Policy as a natural experiment to study that question.

Difference-in-DifferencesLongitudinal survey dataCounterfactual constructionHeterogeneous effects

Research design

Compare individuals with different exposure to the policy within a difference-in-differences framework using longitudinal survey data. Use event-study estimates to assess pre-treatment trends, and examine robustness and variation across groups.

Findings

The paper reports a lower risk of severe mental-health problems among individuals affected by the policy relaxation, alongside improvements in observed physical health in the first post-policy period. Health responses vary by gender, age, marital status and regional development.

Analytical contribution. A policy question becomes an empirical identification problem: define exposure, construct a comparison group, test the assumptions and examine who experiences different effects.

Detailed research summary

Reproductive autonomy is an important dimension of well-being, yet the mental-health consequences of relaxing fertility restrictions remain insufficiently understood. This paper investigates the causal relationship using the implementation of China’s Universal Two-Child Policy as a natural experiment.

A difference-in-differences design compares individuals affected by the policy relaxation with a comparison group. The estimates indicate a reduction in the risk of severe mental-health problems among affected individuals. Improvements in interviewer-observed physical health are evident in the first post-policy period.

Affected women generally experience weaker improvements in mental health than affected men. Improvements are most pronounced among individuals aged 18–30, married individuals and those from less developed regions. These patterns are consistent with a role for reproductive autonomy, although the underlying mechanism requires further identification.

02 / Peer-reviewed publication

COVID-19 and mental health in China: the effects of personality

Xiao Zhang, Michele Battisti & Eugenio Proto
Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 78(2), 98–104 (2024). First published online 9 December 2023.

Using two waves of the China Family Panel Studies, this study follows the same individuals before and during the pandemic and examines how mental-health changes differ across lockdown exposure and personality traits.

Data & approach

Nationally representative longitudinal data from 2018 and 2020, weighted comparisons and regression analysis of differences across individuals.

Principal finding

Severe-depression prevalence rises from 6.68% to 7.86%. Deterioration is greater among people exposed to stricter lockdowns and those with more open personalities.

Detailed research summary

The study documents a moderate deterioration in mental health between 2018 and 2020. The prevalence of severe depressive symptoms rises by approximately 18% relative to its initial level.

Stricter lockdown exposure is associated with approximately 0.4 additional depressive symptoms on average. Deterioration is greater among people who already reported depressive symptoms in 2018. A one-standard-deviation increase in openness is associated with approximately 0.05 additional symptoms, while more neurotic individuals appear less negatively affected.

The analysis highlights variation in mental-health vulnerability across groups. Its before-and-during comparisons and regression associations should be interpreted in the context of the study’s observational design.

03 / Conference presentation

Do Personal Income and Household Income per Capita Affect Life Satisfaction Differently?

Scottish Economic Society Annual Conference · Glasgow, UK · 2024

A research presentation examining the distinction between personal income and household income per capita in relation to life satisfaction.